Skincare

How to Make Smart Decisions Without Getting Lucky

Kristinia Vu | May 22, 2025

Few things will change your trajectory in life or business as much as learning to make high-quality decisions. Yet, no one teaches us how to make consistently effective decisions.

I remember standing in a windowless room at a three-letter intelligence agency. Information was flowing across the screens. Some information said zig, and some said zag. What to do wasn’t clear, and the wrong choice would end up on the front page of most newspapers and put troops in peril.

“Shane…. we need a decision.”

The problem? I was 24. No one had taught me how to make decisions, let alone choices like this. There was no one else around. I could feel my heart beating faster and faster.

I started working at an intelligence agency on August 28, 2001. Two weeks later, the world changed. If you were in the building, you did what you needed to do. No one complained. We all just wanted to do our part.

If no one would teach me how to make decisions, I’d have to teach myself.

There is no class called “practical decision-making.” Making better decisions isn’t one skill but a series of tools, behaviors, and frameworks (see decision by design).

What distinguishes consistently good decision-makers from poor ones is an ability to position yourself, understand the circumstances, and think.

Even a genius looks like an idiot when circumstances force them to make a poor decision. The converse is also true. An average person can look like a genius when they position themselves to take advantage of circumstances.

Aside from positioning, the key is learning to think through a problem using mental models. Mental models are important because they change our perspective and reduce our blind spots.

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